Sir Francis Galton (born 1828) was posed with the exact same challenge when a county fair came to town. He and all the other fair attendees were given the opportunity to win a prize by correctly estimating the weight of an ox.
How might we make predictions in a world of choice and randomness? If we borrow a concept from modern physics, we may be able to make lots of predictions rather than just one.
Around the start of 1900s Arthur Guinness Son & Co. set out to hire the best scientists to analyse data concerned with aspects of their brewing process.
Probabilistic modelling, or Monte Carlo simulation, can be precisely what you need when there is a lot of data known about a system. Calculations in science involve putting numbers together that represent physical quantities.