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Marsman D, D. W. Belsky 路 D. Gregori 路 M. A. Johnson 路 T. Low Dog 路 S. Meydani 路 S. Pigat 路 R. Sadana 路 A. Shao 路 J. C. Griffiths
European Journal of Nutrition
01/06/2018

Healthy ageing: the natural consequences of good nutrition鈥攁 conference report

Many countries are witnessing a marked increase in longevity and with this increased lifespan and the desire for healthy ageing, many, however, suffer from the opposite including mental and physical deterioration, lost productivity and quality of life, and increased medical costs. While adequate nutrition is fundamental for good health, it remains unclear what impact various dietary interventions may have on prolonging good quality of life. Studies which span age, geography and income all suggest that access to quality foods, host immunity and response to inflammation/infections, impaired senses (i.e., sight, taste, smell) or mobility are all factors which can limit intake or increase the body’s need for specific micronutrients. New clinical studies of healthy ageing are needed and quantitative biomarkers are an essential component, particularly tools which can measure improvements in physiological integrity throughout life, thought to be a primary contributor to a long and productive life (a healthy “lifespan”). A framework for progress has recently been proposed in a WHO report which takes a broad, person-centered focus on healthy ageing, emphasizing the need to better understand an individual’s intrinsic capacity, their functional abilities at various life stages, and the impact by mental, and physical health, and the environments they inhabit.

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Assessing vitamin D safety following fortification and supplementation intake scenarios using the EFSA Comprehensive Database: the ODIN approach

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Pigat, S., Connolly, A., Cushen, M., Cullen, M. & O鈥橫ahony, C.
International Journal of Food Sciences and Nutrition
19/02/2018

A probabilistic intake model to estimate the impact of reformulation by the food industry among Irish consumers. Int. J. Food Sci. Nutr. 0, 1鈥8 (2018).

This project quantified the impact that voluntary reformulation efforts of the food industry had on the Irish population鈥檚 nutrient intake. Nutrient composition data on reformulated products were collected from 14 major food companies for two years, 2005 and 2012. Probabilistic intake assessments were performed using the Irish national food consumption surveys as dietary intake data. The nutrient data were weighted by market shares replacing existing food composition data for these products. The reformulation efforts assessed, significantly reduced mean energy intakes by up to 12鈥塳cal/d (adults), 15鈥塳cal/d (teens), 19鈥塳cal/d (children) and 9鈥塳cal/d (pre-schoolers). Mean daily fat intakes were reduced by up to 1.3鈥塯/d, 1.3鈥塯/d, 0.9鈥塯/d and 0.6鈥塯/d, saturated fat intakes by up to 1.7鈥塯/d, 2.3鈥塯/d, 1.8鈥塯/d and 1鈥塯/d, sugar intakes by up to 1鈥塯/d, 2鈥塯/d, 3.5鈥塯/d and 1鈥塯/d and sodium intakes by up to 0.6鈥塯/d, 0.5鈥塯/d, 0.2鈥塯/d, 0.3鈥塯/d for adults, teenagers, children and pre-school children, respectively. This model enables to assess the impact of industry reformulation amongst Irish consumers鈥 nutrient intakes, using consumption, food composition and market share data.

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Vin K, Connolly A, McCaffrey T, McKevitt A, O’Mahony C, Prieto M, Tennant D, Hearty A, Volatier JL.
Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2013;30(12):2050-80. doi: 10.1080/19440049.2013.851417. Epub 2013 Dec 4.
04/12/2013

Estimation of the dietary intake of 13 priority additives in France, Italy, the UK and Ireland as part of the FACET project鈥.

The aim of this study was to assess the dietary exposure of 13 priority additives in four European countries (France, Italy, the UK and Ireland) using the Flavourings, Additives and Contact Materials Exposure Task (FACET) software. The studied additives were benzoates (E210-213), nitrites (E249-250) and sulphites (E220-228), butylated hydroxytoluene (E321), polysorbates (E432-436), sucroses esters and sucroglycerides (E473-474), polyglycerol esters of fatty acids (E475), stearoyl-lactylates (E481-482), sorbitan esters (E493-494 and E491-495), phosphates (E338-343/E450-452), aspartame (E951) and acesulfame (E950). A conservative approach (based on individual consumption data combined with maximum permitted levels (Tier 2)) was compared with more refined estimates (using a fitted distribution of concentrations based on data provided by the food industry (Tier 3)). These calculations demonstrated that the estimated intake is below the acceptable daily intake (ADI) for nine of the studied additives. However, there was a potential theoretical exceedance of the ADI observed for four additives at Tier 3 for high consumers (97.5th percentile) among children: E220-228 in the UK and Ireland, E432-436 and E481-482 in Ireland, Italy and the UK, and E493-494 in all countries. The mean intake of E493-494 could potentially exceed the ADI for one age group of children (aged 1-4 years) in the UK. For adults, high consumers only in all countries had a potential intake higher than the ADI for E493-494 at Tier 3 (an additive mainly found in bakery wares). All other additives examined had an intake below the ADI. Further refined exposure assessments may be warranted to provide a more in-depth investigation for those additives that exceeded the ADIs in this paper. This refinement may be undertaken by the introduction of additive occurrence data, which take into account the actual presence of these additives in the different food groups.

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O’Mahony Cian, Vilone Giulia
EFSA Supporting Publications – Volume10, Issue4 April 2013 415E
19/04/2013

Compiled European Food Consumption Database

Food consumption data is a key element of EFSA’s risk assessment activities, forming the basis of dietary exposure assessment at the European level. In 2011, EFSA released the Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database, gathering detailed consumption data from 34 national food consumption surveys representing 66,492 individuals from 22 EU Member States. Due to different survey methodologies used, national survey data cannot be combined to generate average European estimates of dietary exposure. Although the EU menu project, which aims to collect harmonised food consumption data at EU level, will address this limitation of the Comprehensive database, data from this project will not be available until 2018. The present methodological study was executed to assess how the compatibility or existing consumption data as well as the representativeness of food dietary exposure and risk estimates at the European level could be improved through the development of a “Compiled European Food Consumption Database To create Such a dat abase, the usual intake distributions of 589 food items representing the total diet were estimated for 36 clusters, each one composed of subjects belonging to the same age class (children, adolescents or adults). gender and having a similar diet. An adapted form of the NCI (National Cancer Institute) method was used for this, with a number of important modifications. Season, body weight and whether or not the food was consumed at the weekend were used to predict the probability of consumption. Additionally, the gamma distribution was found to be more suitable for modelling the distribution of food amounts n the different food groups instead f the normal distribution. These distributions were combined with food correlation matrices according to the Iman and Conover method in order to simulate 28 days of consumption for 40,000 simulated individuals. The simulated data were validated by comparing the consumption statistics (e.g. mean, median and certain percentiles) of the simulated individuals to the same statistics estimated from the observed individuals of the Comprehensive Database. The same comparison was done at food group level for each cluster. The opportunities and limitations of using the simulated database for exposure assessments are described.

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O’Mahony Cian, Dennis L Seman
In book: The Stability and Shelf Life of Food, Edition: Second, Chapter: 9, Publisher: Elsevier, Editors: Persis Subramaniam, pp.253-284
01/12/2016

Modeling the Microbiological Shelf Life of Foods and Beverages

From about 1985 to 2015, the subject of predictive microbiology has become a mature area of study in and of itself. The ability to predict the growth of a bacterial species within a food matrix for a given set of intrinsic and environmental conditions offers many advantages and benefits to the food industry professional, and chief among these is the ability to determine shelf life using mathematical models.

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Kettler Susanne & Marc Kennedy, Cronan McNamara, Regina Oberd枚rfer, CianO’Mahony, J眉rgen Schnabel, Benjamin Smith, Corinne Sprong, Roland Faludi, DavidTennant
Food and Chemical Toxicology – Volume 82, August 2015, Pages 79-95
15/04/2015

Assessing and reporting uncertainties in dietary exposure analysis: Mapping of uncertainties in a tiered approach

Uncertainty analysis is an important component of dietary exposure assessments in order to understand correctly the strength and limits of its results. Often, standard screening procedures are applied in a first step which results in conservative estimates. If through those screening procedures a potential exceedance of health-based guidance values is indicated, within the tiered approach more refined models are applied. However, the sources and types of uncertainties in deterministic and probabilistic models can vary or differ.

A key objective of this work has been the mapping of different sources and types of uncertainties to better understand how to best use uncertainty analysis to generate more realistic comprehension of dietary exposure. In dietary exposure assessments, uncertainties can be introduced by knowledge gaps about the exposure scenario, parameter and the model itself. With this mapping, general and model-independent uncertainties have been identified and described, as well as those which can be introduced and influenced by the specific model during the tiered approach.

This analysis identifies that there are general uncertainties common to point estimates (screening or deterministic methods) and probabilistic exposure assessment methods. To provide further clarity, general sources of uncertainty affecting many dietary exposure assessments should be separated from model-specific uncertainties.

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Oldring PK, O’Mahony C, Dixon J, Vints M, Mehegan J, Dequatre C, Castle L.
Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2014;31(3):444-65. doi: 10.1080/19440049.2013.862348. Epub 2014 Jan 15.
15/01/2014

Development of a new modelling tool (FACET) to assess exposure to chemical migrants from food packaging.

The approach used to obtain European Union-wide data on the usage and concentration of substances in different food packaging materials is described. Statistics were collected on pack sizes and market shares for the different materials used to package different food groups. The packaging materials covered were plastics (both flexible and rigid), metal containers, light metal packaging, paper and board, as well as the adhesives and inks used on them. An explanation as to how these data are linked in various ways in the FACET exposure modelling tool is given as well as an overview of the software along with examples of the intermediate tables of data. The example of bisphenol A (BPA), used in resins that may be incorporated into some coatings for canned foodstuffs, is used to illustrate how the data in FACET are combined to produce concentration distributions. Such concentration distributions are then linked probabilistically to the amounts of each food item consumed, as recorded in national food consumption survey diaries, in order to estimate exposure to packaging migrants. Estimates of exposure are at the level of the individual consumer and thus can be expressed for various percentiles of different populations and subpopulations covered by the national dietary surveys.

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Oldring PK, Castle L, O’Mahony C, Dixon J.
Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2014;31(3):466-89. doi: 10.1080/19440049.2013.860240. Epub 2014 Jan 20
20/01/2014

Estimates of dietary exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) from light metal packaging using food consumption and packaging usage data: a refined deterministic approach and a fully probabilistic (FACET) approach.

Estimates of dietary exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) from light metal packaging using food consumption and packaging usage data: a refined deterministic approach and a fully probabilistic (FACET) approach.

The FACET tool is a probabilistic model to estimate exposure to chemicals in foodstuffs, originating from flavours, additives and food contact materials. This paper demonstrates the use of the FACET tool to estimate exposure to BPA (bisphenol A) from light metal packaging. For exposure to migrants from food packaging, FACET uses industry-supplied data on the occurrence of substances in the packaging, their concentrations and construction of the packaging, which were combined with data from a market research organisation and food consumption data supplied by national database managers. To illustrate the principles, UK packaging data were used together with consumption data from the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) dietary survey for 19-64 year olds for a refined deterministic verification. The UK data were chosen mainly because the consumption surveys are detailed, data for UK packaging at a detailed level were available and, arguably, the UK population is composed of high consumers of packaged foodstuffs. Exposures were run for each food category that could give rise to BPA from light metal packaging. Consumer loyalty to a particular type of packaging, commonly referred to as packaging loyalty, was set. The BPA extraction levels used for the 15 types of coating chemistries that could release BPA were in the range of 0.00005-0.012 mg dm(-2). The estimates of exposure to BPA using FACET for the total diet were 0.0098 (mean) and 0.0466 (97.5th percentile) mg/person/day, corresponding to 0.00013 (mean) and 0.00059 (97.5th percentile) mg kg(-1) body weight day(-1) for consumers of foods packed in light metal packaging. This is well below the current EFSA (and other recognised bodies) TDI of 0.05 mg kg(-1) body weight day(-1). These probabilistic estimates were compared with estimates using a refined deterministic approach drawing on the same input data. The results from FACET for the mean, 95th and 97.5th percentile exposures to BPA lay between the lowest and the highest estimates from the refined deterministic calculations. Since this should be the case, for a fully probabilistic compared with a deterministic approach, it is concluded that the FACET tool has been verified in this example. A recent EFSA draft opinion on exposure to BPA from different sources showed that canned foods were a major contributor and compared results from various models, including those from FACET. The results from FACET were overall conservative.

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Oldring P. K. T. – Valspar Corporation UK, F. Savrij Droste, R. Whitaker, D. Smith
Jct Coatings Tech 11(1):30-40
01/01/2014

Light Metal Packaging Methodology for Foodstuffs – FACET

Light metal packaging for foodstuffs primarily encompasses cans, closures, and aerosols. For cans used in the European Union (EU), the majority are beverage cans with about 45 billion used per annum (pa) compared to ap-proximately 20 billion food cans pa. Metal closures are subdivided into about 20 billion closures for jars and 80 bil-ion crowns for bottles per year. The ILSI Monograph on Light Metal Packaging for Foodstuffs1 contains background information for the reader unfamiliar with this type of packaging. The FACET project (Flavours, Additives and food Contact materials Exposure Tool) was a four-year project that was partially funded by the European Commission within its Framework FP7 Programme. The project ran from September 2008 until August 2012. FACET was coordinated by University College Dublin and it involved 20 research partners from across Europe, coming from academia, industry, research centers, and small- to medium-sized enterprises. Hearty et al. provided an early overview of the project plan2 and Oldring et al.3,4 offered a view of the part of the project plan that dealt specifically with packaging materials. More recently, the use of FACET for assessing exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) from light metal packaging has been reported.5 As the name indicates, the FACET expo-sure tool provides a single platform with the functionality to estimate consumer exposure to three types of food chemicals, namely chemical food additives (鈥淓-numbers鈥), chemically defined flavoring substances added to foods, and sub-stances used to make food contact materials. A PC-based desktop application, the FACET exposure tool is publicly avail-able and free of charge. The software tool was developed and populated with data gathered throughout the course of the project, with the facility of uploading any additional data that the end-user might have. This article describes how the information was gathered for the light metal packaging portion of the FACET tool.

FACET Light metal packaging methodology for foodstuffs coatings tech

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Mistura Lorenz, Stefania Sette, Cian O鈥橫ahony, Karl-Heinz Engel, John Mehegan, Catherine Leclercq On behalf of the Flavours, Additives, and Food Contact Material Exposure Task (FACET) Consortium
Food and Chemical Toxicology Volume 58, August 2013, Pages 236-241
01/08/2013

Modelling framework for assessment of dietary exposure to added flavouring substances within the FACET (Flavours, Additives, and Food Contact Material Exposure Task) project.

This paper provides a model to assess dietary exposure to flavouring substances intentionally added to food. The purpose is to describe the approaches currently available and their scientific basis. The proposed exposure model for flavouring substances envisages three different levels of refinement: basic, intermediate and refined. At the two first levels, the model may be applied to all 2543 substances actually in use in Europe, while the refined level has been applied to 41 target flavouring substances selected within the FACET project. The refined level entails the use of the probability of addition of the flavouring substance added to the food and of correction factors related to losses owing to the processing of a food.

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EFSA, EFSA. (2007) Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant protection products and their Residues on acute dietary intake assessment of pesticide residues in fruit and vegetables.

Acute dietary intake is one of the factors considered by Member States, the European Commission and international authorities when setting Maximum Residue Leve is (MRL S) for pesticides. The MRL is the maximum concentration of a pesticide residue (expressed as mg/kg that is legally permitted in or on a food or agricultural commodity or animal feedstuff. The measure of acute dietary exposure that is used in MRL-setting is the International Estimate of Short Term Intake (IESTI). The IESTI is calculated using one of 4 standard equations, de pending on the type of commodity involved. An MRL above the limit of detection is set for a Commodity only it is ESI does not exceed the Acute Reference Dose (ARTD) or the pesticide concerned. The re are discussions at international level about whether to change the way that IESTI equations are calculated. Therefore the European Commission asked the EFSA Scientific Panel on Plant protection products and their Residues (PPR Fane) for an opinion on how conservative the ESTI equation is, With respect to the percentage or the total European population protected from intakes above the ARTD, and how much this would be altered by changes to the way the IESTTIs calculated. However, the Panel is aware that risk managers are also interested in the special case of people who consume a commodity containing residues at the MRL. Therefore the Panel undertook two types of assessment: “total population assessments”, estimating the level of protection for the total population based on the levels of pesticides observed in monitoring programs, and “MRL-level assessments” for the special case of people who consume one commodity containing residues at the MRL and other commodities at monitoring levels. The Panel estimated acute dietary intakes by probabilistic mode ling This used dat a on food consumption and body we ight from national surveys, and took account of unit-to-unit variability of residues using variability factors. The probabilistic estimates of intakes were higher than measured intakes from a duplicate diet study, suggesting the Pane木’s results are conservative .e. overestimating intakes and underestimating levels of protection. However, this comparison was possible for only 6 pesticides in one country and one age group, and extrapolation to others countries and age groups is uncertain. It was not possible to conduct probabilistic modelling for the entire population of the Eu, or for all pesticides. The Panel conducte聽 total population assessments for a number of scenarios representing different combinations of 13 pesticides, 8 countries and a range of age groups from babies to seniors. For practical reasons, the MRL-level assessments were base d on a reduce d range or scenarios, representing only two countries (Germany and The Netherlands) and 11 pesticides. For the total population, the Pane木’s estimates suggested that the level of protection (LoP) provided by the IESTI equation as currently used in the EU (including variability factors of 5 & 7) varies quite widely between different countries, age groups and pesticides. For some pesticide/country/age group scenarios the estimated LoP was between 99 and 99.9%, i.e.

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Ross John; Driver, Jeffrey; Lunchick, Curt; O’Mahony, Cian
Outlooks on Pest Management, Volume 26, Number 1, February 2015, pp. 33-37(5)
01/02/2015

Models for estimating human exposure to pesticides, Outlooks on Pest Management

Any quantitative understanding of human risk from exposure to pesticides requires knowledge of both hazard (the intrinsic ability of a pesticide to cause harm) and exposure (absorbed dose), i.e., risk is directly proportional to the product of hazard and exposure. Thus, regardless of potential high hazard, risk may be insignificant if exposure is very low, and exposure-driven risk assessment is increasingly being recognized as being the best path forward for the protection of human health. In fact, regulatory agencies did not start doing quantitative risk assessments for pesticides using endpoints other than lethality until the 1970s in part because the analytical tools to sensitively measure exposure were lacking. Quantifying exposure to pesticides required analytical methods such as gas chromatography and liquid chromatography that weren?t commercially available until the mid-1960s to early 1970s, respectively. With the advent of quadrapole mass spectroscopy in the early 1970s the ability to quantify sub milligram per kilogram bodyweight exposures to a wide variety of pesticides with confidence became commonplace. Analytical capability has continued to improve, and it is now possible to measure exposures in the nanogram and sometimes pictogram per kilogram range. As our quantitative knowledge of human exposure matured, it was desirable to extrapolate the knowledge from one chemical that had been measured to others that had not. Indeed, by the early 1980s it became evident that handler exposure to conventional pesticides was generic and not chemical specific. Part of the driving factor to do this modeling was that definitive exposure measurements for one chemical under one set of conditions was costly (>?100,000) and time consuming (months), and the combinations and permutations of exposure scenarios and pesticides are staggering. Models allow us to estimate the exposure to a new active substance or rank exposure of one pesticide to others used in similar conditions. The objective of this paper is to present a brief overview of the range of human exposure models that are available, and the route or pathway of exposure for which they estimate dose with the hope that it provides an appreciation of the basic approaches, chronology and effort expended in developing them.

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O鈥橲ullivan AJ, S Pigat, C O鈥橫ahony, MJ Gibney, AI McKevitt
Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A 34 (11), 1863-1874
23/08/2017

Longitudinal modelling of the exposure of young UK patients with PKU to acesulfame K and sucralose

Artificial sweeteners are used in protein substitutes intended for the dietary management of inborn errors of metabolism (phenylketonuria, PKU) to improve the variety of medical foods available to patients and ensure dietary adherence to the prescribed course of dietary management. These patients can be exposed to artificial sweeteners from the combination of free and prescribed foods. Young children have a higher risk of exceeding acceptable daily intakes (ADI) for additives than adults, due to higher food intakes per kg body weight. Young patients with PKU aged 1鈥3聽years can be exposed to higher levels of artificial sweeteners from these dual sources than normal healthy children and are at a higher risk of exceeding the ADI. Standard intake assessment methods are not adequate to assess the additive exposure of young patients with PKU. The aim of this study was to estimate the combination effect on the intake of artificial sweeteners and the impact of the introduction of new provisions for an artificial sweetener (sucralose, E955) on exposure of PKU patients using a validated probabilistic model. Food consumption data were derived from the food consumption survey data of healthy young children in the United Kingdom from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS, 1992鈥2012). Specially formulated protein substitutes as foods for special medical purposes (FSMPs) were included in the exposure model to replace restricted foods. Inclusion of these protein substitutes is based on recommendations to ensure adequate protein intake in these patients. Exposure assessment results indicated the availability of sucralose for use in FSMPs for PKU leads to changes in intakes in young patients. These data further support the viability of probabilistic modelling as a means to estimate food additive exposure in patients consuming medical nutrition products.

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Micronutrient exposure modelling: To build a refined safety assessment for micronutrients

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Pigat Sandrine, Rosalyn O’Connor
The FASEB Journal 29 (1_supplement), 905.3
01/04/2015

Probabilistic Bioactive Food Compound Intakes in the European BACCHUS Project

Objective

The EU funded BACCHUS project aims to develop tools and resources to study relationships between bioactive food compound intakes and cardiovascular health in humans. To handle variation and uncertainty of bioactive levels in foods a probabilistic model of bioactive intakes was used to estimate distributions of population intakes.

Methods

To assess food bioactive intake distributions in Europe, national food intake surveys were used from the UK, the Netherlands, Norway and Spain. To account for variability and uncertainty of bioactive concentrations within foods, the foods consumed were linked to discrete bioactive concentration distributions using published data on plant based foods as captured in the eBasis database. Daily bioactive population intakes were calculated using a probabilistic intake model in the Creme Nutrition庐 software.

Results

Data shows apple (g/day) and catechin (mg/day) intakes from apples and apple products in the four countries.

Daily intakes (mg/day) Ireland UK Spain Norway
Mean (95%ile) Mean (95%ile) Mean (95%ile) Mean (95%ile)
Apple + Apple Products 33 (135) 32 (129) 42 (183) 78 (300)
Catechin 1卤0.1 (5.8卤0.4) 1卤0.1 (5.2卤0.3) 1.3卤0.06 (8卤0.4) 2.5卤0.14 (14.8卤1.0)
Epicatechin 13卤0.6 (56.5卤3.5) 12.9卤0.65 (54.5卤3.6) 16.7卤0.48 (73.1卤2.4) 29.8卤1.06 (119.6卤6.0)
Epigallocatechin 22.4卤0.9 (92.2卤4.1) 21.7卤1.0 (88.2卤4.9) 28.9卤0.8 (125.2卤6.8) 53.1卤1.8 (204.9卤7.7)
Epicatechin-gallate 0.1卤0.0 (0.3卤0.0) 0.1卤0.0 (0.2卤0.0) 0.1卤0.0 (0.3卤0.0) 0.1卤0.0 (0.6卤0.0)
Conclusion

This study enables the link between bioactive concentration levels in foods and representative population intakes, using probabilistic intake models to better estimate full intake distributions in a population.

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Tozer, S & Cian O’Mahony, Jen Hannah, John O’Brien, Seamus Kelly, Kirstin Kosemund-Meynen, Camilla Alexander-White
Food and Chemical Toxicology, Volume 131, September 2019, 110549
31/05/2019

Aggregate exposure modelling of vitamin A from cosmetic products, diet and food supplements

Realism is important in estimating consumer exposure to a substance, especially when accounting for exposure from multiple sources. Humans are exposed to聽vitamin A聽from food, dietary supplements and cosmetics products. A probabilistic aggregate exposure model was developed for estimating exposure distributions to vitamin A (as retinol equivalents) in pre-/post-menopausal, and menopausal women in European and US populations. Data from large dietary surveys were used, together with realistic and extreme case scenarios of cosmetics product use (including occurrence data for vitamin A presence in 17 cosmetic products). Results of absorbed exposure estimates were expressed as 渭g/kg鈥痓w/day by incorporating dermal and oral聽bioavailability聽data. The mean and 95th percentile (P95) aggregate exposures were below the EU Tolerable Upper Intake Limit (3000鈥糶/day; 45鈥糶/kg/day internal exposure dose (IED)), providing positive assurances of safety. The major source of vitamin A exposure is the diet, with cosmetics providing only a small fraction of total exposure (2鈥5% at P95). In addition to providing a realistic assessment of total vitamin A exposure, this work provides a case study on how to approach future complex aggregate exposure questions.

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Tozer Sarah, Cian O鈥橫ahony, Jay Nash, Seamus Kelly, E.J. Daly
Toxicology Letters, Volume 229, Supplement, 10 September 2014, Page S128
10/09/2014

Probabilistic aggregate exposure modelling to aluminium from the diet, cosmetics and medicines

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van der Fels-Klerx, H.J. (Ine) & Simon G. Edwards, Marc C. Kennedy, Sue O’Hagan, Cian O’Mahony, Gabriele Scholz, Pablo Steinberg, Alessandro Chiodini
Food and Chemical Toxicology Volume 74, December 2014, Pages 360-371
01/12/2014

A framework to determine the effectiveness of dietary exposure mitigation to chemical contaminants

In order to ensure the food safety, risk managers may implement measures to reduce human exposure to contaminants via food consumption. The evaluation of the effect of a measure is often an overlooked step in risk analysis process. The aim of this study was to develop a systematic approach for determining the effectiveness of mitigation measures to reduce dietary exposure to chemical contaminants. Based on expert opinion, a general framework for evaluation of the effectiveness of measures to reduce human exposure to food contaminants was developed. The general outline was refined by application to three different cases: 1) methyl mercury in fish and fish products, 2) deoxynivalenol in cereal grains, and 3) furan in heated products. It was found that many uncertainties and natural variations exist, which make it difficult to assess the impact of the mitigation measure. Whenever possible, quantitative methods should be used to describe the current variation and uncertainty. Additional data should be collected to cover natural variability and reduce uncertainty. For the time being, it is always better for the risk manager to have access to all available information, including an assessment of uncertainty; however, the proposed methodology provides a conceptual framework for addressing these systematically.

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Tozer S, Kosemund K, Kelly S, O鈥橫ahony C.
Toxicology Letters, Volume 238, Issue 2, Supplement, 16 October 2015, Page S368
16/10/2015

Aggregate exposure to vitamin A from cosmetics and the diet

Realism is important in estimating consumer exposure to a substance, especially when accounting for exposure from multiple sources. Humans are exposed to vitamin A from food, dietary supplements and cosmetics products. A probabilistic aggregate exposure model was developed for estimating exposure distributions to vitamin A (as retinol equivalents) in pre-/post-menopausal, and menopausal women in European and US populations. Data from large dietary surveys were used, together with realistic and extreme case scenarios of cosmetics product use (including occurrence data for vitamin A presence in 17 cosmetic products). Results of absorbed exposure estimates were expressed as 渭g/kg bw/day by incorporating dermal and oral bioavailability data. The mean and 95th percentile (P95) aggregate exposures were below the EU Tolerable Upper Intake Limit (3000 渭g/day; 45 渭g/kg/day internal exposure dose (IED)), providing positive assurances of safety. The major source of vitamin A exposure is the diet, with cosmetics providing only a small fraction of total exposure (2-5% at P95). In addition to providing a realistic assessment of total vitamin A exposure, this work provides a case study on how to approach future complex aggregate exposure questions.

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Tennant David & Di谩na B谩n谩ti, Marc Kennedy, J眉rgen K枚nig, Cian O’Mahony, Susanne Kettler
Food and Chemical Toxicology, Volume 109, Part 1, November 2017, Pages 68-80
02/08/2017

Assessing and reporting uncertainties in dietary exposure analysis 鈥 Part II: Application of the uncertainty template to a practical example of exposure assessment

A previous publication described methods for assessing and reporting uncertainty in dietary exposure assessments. This follow-up publication uses a case study to develop proposals for representing and communicating uncertainty to risk managers. The food ingredient聽aspartame聽is used as the case study in a simple deterministic model (the EFSA FAIM template) and with more sophisticated probabilistic exposure assessment software (FACET). Parameter and model uncertainties are identified for each modelling approach and tabulated. The relative importance of each source of uncertainty is then evaluated using a semi-quantitative scale and the results expressed using two different forms of graphical summary. The value of this approach in expressing uncertainties in a manner that is relevant to the exposure assessment and useful to risk managers is then discussed. It was observed that the majority of uncertainties are often associated with data sources rather than the model itself. However, differences in modelling methods can have the greatest impact on uncertainties overall, particularly when the underlying data are the same. It was concluded that improved methods for communicating uncertainties for risk management is the research area where the greatest amount of effort is suggested to be placed in future.

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W.den Besten Heidy M., Alejandro Am茅zquita, Sara Bover-Cid, St茅phane Dagnas, Mariem Ellouze, Sandrine Guillou, George Nychas, Cian O’Mahony, Fernando P茅rez-Rodriguez, Jeanne-Marie Membr茅
International Journal of Food Microbiology Volume 287, 20 December 2018, Pages 18-27
20/12/2018

Next generation of microbiological risk assessment: Potential of omics data for exposure assessment

In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now mostly phenotypic data have been used in exposure assessment, mechanistic cellular information, obtained using omics techniques, will enable the fine tuning of exposure assessments to move towards the next generation of microbiological risk assessment. In particular,聽metagenomics聽can help in characterizing the food and factory environment聽microbiota聽(endogenous microbiota and potentially pathogens) and the changes over time under the environmental conditions associated with processing, preservation and storage. The difficulty lies in moving up to a quantitative exposure assessment, because the development of models that enable the prediction of dynamics of pathogens in a complex food ecosystem is still in its infancy in the food safety domain. In addition, collecting and storing the environmental data (metadata) required to inform the models has not yet been organised at a large scale. In contrast, progress in biomarker identification and characterization has already opened the possibility of making qualitative or even quantitative connection between process and formulation conditions and microbial responses at the strain level. In term of modelling approaches, without changing radically the usual model structure, changes in model inputs are expected: instead of (or as well as) building models upon phenotypic characteristics such as for example minimal temperature where growth is expected, exposure assessment models could use biomarker response intensity as inputs. These new generations of strain-level models will bring an added value in predicting the variability in pathogen behaviour. Altogether, these insights based upon omics techniques will increase our (quantitative) knowledge on pathogenic strains and consequently will reduce our uncertainty; the exposure assessment of a specific combination of pathogen and food will be then more accurate. This progress will benefit the whole community of safety assessors and research scientists from academia, regulatory agencies and industry.

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O鈥橲ullivan Aaron J., Sandrine Pigat, Cian O鈥橫ahony, Michael J. Gibney & Aideen I. McKevitt
Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A Volume 35, 2018 – Issue 1
17/11/2017

Predictive modelling of the exposure to Steviol Glycosides in Irish patients aged 1-3 years with Phenylketonuria and Cow鈥檚 milk protein allergy

Children with Phenylketonuria (PKU) and severe cow鈥檚 milk protein allergy (CMPA) consume prescribed, specially formulated, foods for special medical purposes (FSMPs) as well as restricted amounts of normal foods. These patients are exposed to artificial sweeteners from the consumption of a combination of free and prescribed foods. Young patients with PKU and CMPA have a higher risk of exceeding acceptable daily intakes (ADI) for additives than age-matched healthy children. A predictive modelling approach has been adapted successfully to assess the additive exposure of young patients with PKU and CMPA to artificial sweeteners. Steviol glycosides (E960) are at various stages of regulatory approval for the various food categories in the EU but are not as yet permitted for use in products intended for young children. The aim of this study was to predict potential steviol glycoside exposure in young children with PKU and CMPA considering the potential for future provisions for the use of this sweetener. The recent introduction of steviol glycosides means that no exposure data are available for children with CMPA and PKU. Food consumption data were derived from the food consumption survey data of healthy young children in Ireland from the National Preschool and Nutrition Survey (NPNS, 2010鈥11). Specially formulated amino acid-based FSMPs are used to replace whole or milk protein foods and were included in the exposure model to replace restricted foods. The recommendations to ensure adequate protein intake in these patients were used to determine FSMP intake. Exposure assessment results indicated that the maximum permitted level (MPL) for FSMPs would warrant careful consideration to avoid exposures above the ADI. These data can be used to inform recommendations for the medical nutrition industry.

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Feed to fork risk assessment of mycotoxins under climate change influences – recent developments

Background

Mycotoxins聽are toxins produced by toxigenic fungi and are potentially present in different feed and foodstuffs, including animal products, with the latter typically resulting from carry-over from feedstuffs. These toxins have been linked to various human health issues, including reduced immunity and liver cancer. The production of these toxins is dependent on several factors, including weather conditions like temperature and precipitation, which in turn may be influenced by climate change.

Scope and approach

This review undertakes a systematic approach to identify scientific studies that assess mycotoxin production in feed and cereals which may be influenced by weather variables or climate change scenarios. It also looks at human health risk assessments carried out in the past 20 years related to mycotoxins detected in animal products and the degree to which climate change influences are captured in these risk assessments.

Key findings and conclusions

This review presents a state of the art with regards to risk assessment and modelling approaches to managing mycotoxin contamination in the light of climate change influences. There are very limited human health risk assessments looking at mycotoxin contamination of animal products under climate change influences, whereas a few predictive crop-toxin models considered future climate change scenarios. Predictive crop-toxin models can be used in conjunction with health risk assessments to evaluate mycotoxin risk in animal products under future climate change scenarios. The review identifies scientific gaps including the need for better integration of mycotoxin predictive models, risk assessment and climate change variables to better understand potential climate change influences on food safety.

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Fiin

How building an anonymous data sharing platform gave Fiin members a broader view of what is happening with supplies from across the globe.
Domain: Food Safety聽聽 聽 聽 Software used: Data Foundry

Activities: Software Development | Anonymised Data Collection | Data Visualisation

Fiin

Fiin Data Collection Platform

New way of combating food fraud.

This case study describes how building an anonymous data sharing platform gave Fiin members a broader view of what is happening with supplies from across the globe.

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We work with the largest food, cosmetic and chemical brands in the world and also with main industry regulators in both the US and Europe.

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O鈥橲ullivan Aaron J., Sandrine Pigat, Cian O鈥橫ahony, Michael J. Gibney & Aideen I. McKevitt
Pages 1660-1671 | Received 11 May 2016, Accepted 08 Aug 2016, Accepted author version posted online: 09 Sep 2016, Published online: 30 Sep 2016
09/09/2016

Probabilistic modelling to assess exposure to three artificial sweeteners of young Irish patients aged 1鈥3 years with PKU and CMPA

The choice of suitable normal foods is limited for individuals with particular medical conditions, e.g., inborn errors of metabolism (phenylketonuria 鈥 PKU) or severe cow鈥檚 milk protein allergy (CMPA). Patients may have dietary restrictions and exclusive or partial replacement of specific food groups with specially formulated products to meet particular nutrition requirements. Artificial sweeteners are used to improve the appearance and palatability of such food products to avoid food refusal and ensure dietary adherence. Young children have a higher risk of exceeding acceptable daily intakes for additives than adults due to higher food intakes聽kg鈥1聽body weight. The Budget Method and EFSA鈥檚 Food Additives Intake Model (FAIM) are not equipped to assess partial dietary replacement with special formulations as they are built on data from dietary surveys of consumers without special medical requirements impacting the diet. The aim of this study was to explore dietary exposure modelling as a means of estimating the intake of artificial sweeteners by young PKU and CMPA patients aged 1鈥3聽years. An adapted validated probabilistic model (FACET) was used to assess patients鈥 exposure to artificial sweeteners. Food consumption data were derived from the food consumption survey data of healthy young children in Ireland from the National Preschool and Nutrition Survey (NPNS, 2010鈥11). Specially formulated foods for special medical purposes were included in the exposure model to replace restricted foods. Inclusion was based on recommendations for adequate protein intake and dietary adherence data. Exposure assessment results indicated that young children with PKU and CMPA have higher relative average intakes of artificial sweeteners than healthy young children. The reliability and robustness of the model in the estimation of patient additive exposures was further investigated and provides the first exposure estimates for these special populations.

Food Additives and Contaminants journal software for modelling dietary exposure to food chemicals and nutrients

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